A Prediction Model for Night Recovery of Embarked Aircrafts Based on System Dynamics

Liangliang Cheng, Kuizhi Yue, Zhenghao Huang


In order to make a sensible prediction on the air traffic flow management with conditions of wave-off and bolter, a system dynamic model for the night recovery operations of embarked aircrafts is built to ensure the adaption of air traffic flow with the capacity of air control at each phase of the recovery operations. The model aims at the characteristics of multiple feedbacks, delays and complex time varying, builds a stock flow diagram and operation model with impact factors of the night recovery system, and is simulated in Vensim® Personal Learning Edition 5.9. The simulation shows a reasonable prediction result for the night recovery of embarked aircrafts with conditions of bolter and wave-off and can provide a theoretical basis for scheduling the air traffic flow management of embarked aircrafts formation recovery.


Air traffic flow management; Recovery; Embarked aircrafts formation; System dynamics;Complex system modeling.

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